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Originally Posted by Taf
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Context is everything (as is an appropriately-scaled graph).
On 6 January 2021 a case spike of almost 58,000 (rolling average) resulted in a peak rolling-average of deaths of around 1,200, 3 weeks after the new case peak.
On 6 January 2022 the rolling 7 day average of new cases peaked at a whopping 181,000. Now, we are likely still a fortnight from the death peak associated with that, however with the rolling average presently sitting at 238 it’s fanciful to think it’s going to get anywhere near where it did last year. For comparison, one week post-peak last year, rolling average deaths were 985, I.e. already 75% of the way to their peak. If we are similarly 75% of the way to the peak death rate associated with omicron, then we’re looking at a rolling 7-day average in the region of maybe 320. And that’s assuming deaths climb for the next two weeks at the same rate they did last January, which so far in this wave they simply have not done.