Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx
Yes, the absolute number of cases is a crude estimate of the severity of any outbreak and certainly shouldn't be used to establish a health policy. However, it is a measure easily digested by the public which is critical in a public health emergency.
As always, the absolute number numbers reported should never be taken as gospel for the reasons you state - many people might get missed due to not testing. More important is the trending - are cases going up or down and therefore are things likely to get better or worse? Of course, trending is only possible if the drivers for testing stay the same, i.e. people do a test for the same reasons every time.
The other option is to randomly sample a subset of the population and extrapolate from there. That is what the ONS reports do where around 180,000 people are randomly selected per fortnight for PCR testing. This probably gives a better guide of what is out there in the wild than people who self select (or not) through booking and taking tests. Here is the current report. This is where you see the 1 in 15 in England testing positive. I know some on here don't like statisticians but these surverys are pretty up front about the limitations in the data ( article here and here)
Unfortunately, the ONS surveys only come out weekly and probably aren't timely enough considering the doubling time of COVID when it runs riot |
But none of this alters the fact that the daily statistics are based on the number of cases reported, which will go up and down on the basis of how many tests are carried out, not the actual number of cases, which is far higher. People are glued to these reported figures rather than the hospitalisation figures.
---------- Post added at 19:44 ---------- Previous post was at 19:30 ----------
How will the Scots react to Nicola Sturgeon’s latest pronouncement?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...s-plan-living/
Scots will be have to wear face coverings in public places for years to come under Nicola Sturgeon's long-term strategy for living with Covid, she has indicated.
The First Minister said Scotland had to ask itself "what adaptations to pre-pandemic life" might be needed and said face coverings "might be required in the longer-term to enable us to live with it with far fewer protective measures".
She insisted the tough measures she had imposed on hospitality and large events from Boxing Day had worked, despite government figures showing that Scotland has a higher Covid rate than England.
It would not be a popular measure in my part of the world.