[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

With the best will in the world Pierre you're making the same false assumptions as the herd immunity crowd last March.

Transmission in schools remains low while community prevalence is low. It's inevitable that infection, given time without mitigation, will spread and infect significant proportions of the school age population and into the wider population - among those unvaccinated and where vaccine efficacy has waned.

It's then an absolute inevitability that at a later date we will be spending more time, money and effort in lockdowns against an escape variant.

I agree being vaccinated should be a matter of choice. However if too many people choose not to the herd immunity threshold is never hit and we spend years firefighting.

If we say it's not safe to vaccinate teenagers and those younger why would someone in their early 20s volunteer to take it? Suddenly HIT requires almost 100% uptake of a 90% vaccine - something we've not seen against new variants.

If we get 70% uptake of a 70% vaccine then mutant variants are an absolute inevitability.

Vaccinate the vulnerable is 2021s 'shield the vulnerable'. While it's rational to want HIT to be achieved by other people taking the vaccine - personal risk becomes zero - the problem is where everyone chooses to be rational at an individual level.

---------- Post added at 09:27 ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 ----------



So a rational individual doesn't take the vaccine but hopes everyone else does. Especially whatever politician was leaning on Channel 4 to suppress the story because it could slow easing of restrictions by a mere two weeks.

Talking of herd immunity.

Britain will achieve herd immunity on Monday

UCL modelling says number of people with protection either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12.

According to the UCL results, published this week, the number of people who have protection against the virus either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12 – enough to tip the country into herd immunity.

The number is in stark contrast to the modelling released by Imperial College this week, which suggested there was just 34 per cent protection by the end of March.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...eshold-monday/