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Originally Posted by Pierre
I predict that on 1st November we still haven’t left the EU.
I hope that isn’t the case, but I fear it will be.
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I think we leave with a deal that has a 'reworded' backstop.
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I’m not up to speed on his power but I think the speaker will do something, that stops us leaving, or enables others to stop us, which then forces his resignation - he’s due to leave anyway so he’ll go with a bang.
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I think the ideal situation for Boris Johnson is that Parliament does find a way to block No Deal and triggers a VoNC. He can then go the country saying he tried but was blocked from doing so, this is an ideal situation for squeezing out the Brexit Party.
The other alternatives aren't great:
- Any election after No Deal Brexit? Unless No Deal does turn out to be fine any consequences for it will be placed at his feet. Especially after he would have tried so hard to make it happen.
- An election after a Deal? Brexit Party will go after the Tories and he isn't winning votes from anywhere else.
Best case for him is an election before Brexit in which the Brexit Party are not a threat. Gives him breathing space to do a Deal and/or to ride out a negative impact on the economy. But he cannot be the one to have called the election.