Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
The amount of people in hospital with COVID at the peak of the first wave was around 21,300 and those in ICU was inclusive of that was around 3,200.
When lock down restrictions started to ease in June it was around 3,000 & 311 respectively.
Looking at the slope of the current graph curves and extrapolating we may be at around those levels come mid-late March.
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There certainly could be scope to the main difference is there's already a commitment to try and get schools back first which wasn't the case in the summer. This will promote greater spread among kids and the unvaccinated (their parents).
That said if we work on the assumption that lockdown and the attempts to test, trace isolate new variants works I'm not a million miles away from you. Mid-late April might only be 4 weeks further along but would push cases right down, and following your trends pushes NHS utilisation right down. That pushes the potential need to reintroduce restrictions further into the long grass and hopefully (at vaccinating 8 million people in a combination of second/first doses in that time) creates a one way path out of restrictions.