Thread: VOD Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
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Old 01-02-2019, 08:46   #536
OLD BOY
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
You have to “demonstrate” because you are the one making the claim throughout this thread and this forum that linear TV will cease. Whether I can quote the cost of running ITV is an irrelevance: ITV has content costs that it has whether or not it is viewed on their website, on catch up or on the linear channel. The additional cost of running the linear channel is demonstrably small: check any platform you like and there are hundreds of channels carrying out all of the associated tasks and broadcasting to tiny audiences.

To any major content provider like Sky, who heavily rely on other funding sources, the cost of maintaining their linear channels is tiny on top of all of the other content costs. The same will be true of ITV, Channel 4 or any other “free to air” broadcaster however they adapt to the future.

It’s helpful that you are using the BARB as a source, as it is credible, and reasonable growth for streaming is something I’ve never claimed will not happen. “Unidentified viewing” growing 16% to 19% is more realistic than the “160% growth (8% to 20%)” for Super Bowl streaming in your previous link.

How that 19% grows to 100% is the bit I have difficulty with.

The vast, vast majority of people could watch television without adverts now using their DVR but the evidence does not suggest most of those exclusively time shift their viewing to avoid advertising despite the technology at their fingertips. How do you move someone who “isn’t that bothered” into your streaming future? Or the type of person who bought a widescreen TV and used it to stretch a 4:3 picture? Sky (and Virgin) will continue to hoover up these subscribers through a combination of convenience and key content while offering streaming options alongside their current platforms.

Sky maintain all of their movie channels despite all of the library being on demand. They increased the number of Sports channels to give users the convenience of not having to use the red button so often.

Beyond all this it leaves one thing advertisers will be able to guarantee as streaming services grow. The minority of people left who still watch the majority of their content the “old” way will be very likely to be actually watching the breaks.
I think that what you are missing is the fact that we don't need to reduce the amount of viewing on linear channels to 0% before they are abandoned. A big shift in linear TV viewing has already happened and the number of hours people are spending watching on demand programming and streaming is continuing to increase. We are reaching a point at which conventionally broadcast channels will start closing down in significant numbers.

By the way, yet another report on this which notes that we are closer than ever to the 'inflection point'. Well within the period I have set out in my prediction.

https://advanced-television.com/2019...tipping-point/
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