Chris

They have the power to hold a consultation on public opinion on any issue, but it wouldn’t have any legitimacy, especially when compared to the mechanisms that were put in place for 2014. Without an act of Parliament behind it (the actual Parliament that is) there is no obligation on anyone to enact any constitutional changes off the back of it. A referendum without status offers the “no” campaign the obvious strategy of non cooperation, leading to a low turnout but a large yes majority, leading to the British government’s refusal to negotiate, leading to extremists protesting on the streets and ultimately people getting arrested.

I believe the UK gov would be more measured than the Spanish (we shouldn’t forget the psychological difference that exists in some way or other in every country in Western Europe - all of them have been under dictatorships in living memory), but nonetheless the recent experience of Catalan separatists weighs heavily on the Nats here. They see Catalonia as a parallel with Scotland, hence all the Catalan flags you see during the regular zombie shuffles they hold in Glasgow. They know a second referendum really would be the last for a very long time and the ones with brains (and there are some) know therefore that they can’t afford to do anything to risk messing it up.

Coronavirus is an absolute gift to Nicola Sturgeon in this sense. She has been struggling to contain the pressure from the ones without brains (and there are many) to hold a second referendum as soon as possible. She knows this is too risky and prefers to wait, but has found it hard to steer a course that doesn’t risk her getting defenestrated. Her rhetoric has tended only to inflame the berserkers, many of whom seem actually to have believed the UK government would have caved in and granted them a referendum before the end of the year (or failing that, that the SNP would hold one anyway). Of course this was never going to happen, and Sturgeon has simply stored up a problem for herself come year end when no Section 30 Order is forthcoming. Except of course they now have all the pretext they need to simply bury the issue.

There is a Scottish Parliament election next year. Most people in Scotland will now accept that the question of a referendum is put to bed at the very least until that new parliament convenes.