[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Shows that if they don’t tread carefully a further lockdown is inevitable - some optimistically hoped all these asymptomatic carriers would mean that a significant portion of the population would have immunity helping slow the spread and keep R below 1. The evidence is now not there. There’s no miracles out there other than to have an effective public health response.

While some countries would like to keep the holiday sectors open it’s not really their choice if the figures get out of control. Even if they keep borders open, will significant numbers want to travel to resorts affected by the virus, only to quarantine for two weeks when they get home? Will countries want to accept foreign visitors from more affected areas to risk the health of their own population?

Burying their head in the sand and hoping for the best does not make for a prosperous economy. A few months of summer tourism won’t fund a long hard winter of a medical emergency and internal lockdown for countries who have a significant tourism sector.

“Herd immunity” is going to take two years, or more, of treading carefully at this rate. Two years of recession minimum and probably just as long to get out of it.

A fair assessment.