16-09-2021, 13:33
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#7256
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,133
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
Sage's modelling cock-up.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/15/s...r-over-summer/
Quote:
SAGE has had to release an embarrassing mea culpa after getting their summer Covid modelling badly wrong. A new document released by the advice body admits the modelling “did not foresee such rapid transient change in dynamics”, citing possible reasons such as:
The closure of schools for the summer
“A period of warm weather”
Changes in behaviour following the Euros
The pingdemic forcing so many isolations
How the nation’s brainiest boffins did not foresee warm weather during the summer, nor the closure of schools, is pretty astonishing.
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Guido doing some highly selective quoting there…
https://assets.publishing.service.go..._Statement.pdf
The original says
Quote:
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The modelling did not foresee such rapid transient change in dynamics, with possible reasons including the closure of schools for the summer, changes in behaviour during and following the Euro 2020 football matches, a period of warm weather, and a large proportion of the population isolating as a result of being identified as a contact of a case, as discussed in a previous consensus statement2. Outturn data for hospital admissions over the month of August did, nevertheless, fall within expectations for some scenarios, although hospital occupancy and deaths have been lower than expected under central vaccination assumptions. It is, however, still possible to use these scenarios to understand plausible future trajectories over the next few months into winter.
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