Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Before you get too relaxed with all this nonsense ...
The wise heads in the SNP haven’t actually changed their minds about any of this. They were in no doubt they needed a Section 30 Order for 2014 and they still think that. What has changed is that a number of positions in the party’s NEC now occupied by hardliners. Sturgeon wants to keep her job so pragmatism has forced her to order the pompous Mike Russell to write up the “strategy” we are now debating. Except it isn’t a strategy, it’s a plan B that only exists because Sturgeon can no longer afford to look like the nationalist leader who doesn’t want a referendum.
What’s worse is that thanks to Nippy being rather more to Scottish tastes than Boris when it comes to media management in a crisis, the SNP looks like it might actually have a working majority again this year, if not by itself then with the continuing assistance of those useful idiots who like to call themselves the Scottish Green Party; furthermore, Boris has gone further than any UK politician to date in spelling out that he means to stick by “once in a generation”, and has defined “generation” in truly Biblical terms (40 years).
So really, those in the SNP who think winning a referendum is more important than simply holding one are beginning to lose the argument that it is better to wait until the polling is consistently high enough, consistently long enough, for victory to be more or less certain. The party ultras, who properly drank the kool-aid in 2014 and genuinely think Scotland is on the brink of being thoroughly wrecked by Toreeez, having its NHS sold off, Trident missiles farting plutonium all over the central belt and whatever, are starting to get the upper hand.
It’s also worth pointing out that the SNP, in proposing the UK government can do only one of three things in the face of its proposed Referendum Bill, has actually failed to list the fourth option: the one thing the UK government is most likely to do, and which the SNP desperately hopes it won’t do, which is to accept the Scottish Parliament is perfectly entitled to poll the Scottish electorate for its opinion on any issue it likes, but that this doesn’t afford the outcome the same status as the 2014 referendum which was enabled by Act of Parliament and underpinned by a document signed by the PM, FM and their deputies.
HMG may deny a section 30 order, choose not to challenge any subsequent referendum act in the courts, decline to engage with the ensuing campaign (except perhaps for taking the opportunity to point out to the electorate that this is a glorified exercise in opinion polling which they are not obliged to participate in) and then refuse to discuss the outcome with Scottish Ministers.
What then?
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I suspect the UK Government will grant a further referendum if the SNP win the election clearly, or at least define clear terms under which a referendum could take place.
However, if there's an unofficial poll it will simply drag on further constitutional turmoil. The Scottish electorate will continue to return SNP governments in Scotland and the overwhelming number of MPs to Westminster (50+). The situation will not be sustainable long term - even worse if the UK were to return a hung Parliament.