Chris

The final calculation will be horrifically complex. We need to arrive at “excess deaths” - those who would not have died in the very short term had they not contracted the virus, which will mean discounting some people who are currently being counted - while also including those whose death from c19 wasn’t immediately obvious.

When making a comparative count against other similar countries we also need to look at where each country started from. If, for example, a significantly higher number got into the UK at a very early stage from a virus hotspot, then that immediately puts us at a disadvantage, and it would be unfair to judge our response on equal terms with a country where only a few infected people initially got in.

Likewise the effectiveness of the official response must in some way be measured while taking our industrial starting point into account. Is it the case that Germany’s pharmaceutical and industrial chemical industries gave them a head start on testing kits, for example? Were chances to ensure strategic domestic production of key chemicals and other resources missed during the routine wargaming all governments do when considering scenarios like this?

Of course as soon as politicians feel the death rate has fallen to an acceptable level the gloves will come off and this will just get a two dimensional political treatment, who should have done what and when, aided and abetted by all the usual cheerleaders writing for all the usual outlets.

But the hard research work must be done, it must be done well, and the outcome must be treated honestly by our politicians. We can’t afford to go through this sort of upheaval again. We simply have to learn the lessons and be properly prepared.