Quote:
Originally Posted by Horizon
I don't think Vodafone will spoil the party and attempt to merge with VM itself for a few reasons. Firstly, they've been dancing around each other for years and nothing happened and secondly, Vodafone's boss made it clear that he didn't want to be part of Malone's tax "planning" scheme and get loaded up with debt. So, I think this VM/O2 merger will go ahead
But, that does leave Vodafone out in the cold now with two very powerful multiplatform competitors, so I would not be surprised if Vodafone bought TalkTalk with its 4 million plus broadband customers and possibly CityFibre too. Vodafone and CiryFibre have been working together on various FTTP projects around the country, so it could be a good combination. Last, but not least there is 3, which is very much in a distant fourth place here and I expect something to happen to them too at some point.
And, as you say, where does this leave Comcast? A cable co without a cable network or mobile outfit. I think more mergers are likely now.
I don't think we'll see any moves by Comcast yet, as it's busy dealing the collapse of its film/tv business', but in the future, I expect them to make some sort of move.
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Some interesting points there, Horizon. I think one piece of good news for O2-VM's competitors is that its shareholders want to continue milking it as a cash cow and will continue to load it with debt and take out dividends. Thus, it's not in danger of being a big threat to Sky or BT.
Three and TalkTalk both focus on the value end of the market so would make more of a a logical combination from a customer perspective. However, as you say, if Vodafone did not acquire TalkTalk its broadband options are limited to acquiring the far smaller challenger businesses like Community Fibre and City Fibre.
On reflection, Comcast despite its cable roots can probably thrive in the medium term without owning a cable network in Europe. It is currently quite easy for it to resell other providers' broadband capacity and it is strong on content. Three might be a good fit on the mobile front and mobile broadband is improving with 5G.
The deal also hoists a for sale sign over VM Ireland. In the Republic of Ireland the broadband market shares are: Eir 31%, Virgin Media 26%, Vodafone 19%, and Sky 13%. Per
https://www.comreg.ie/publication/qu...report-q3-2019
Without Telefonica in that marketplace, there's no obvious trade buyer. Maybe BT at a push.