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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
You are exaggerating the cost of leaving the EU to a considerable degree,
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I can’t exaggerate something that isn’t quantifiable.
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and you are not addressing the upsides. I have said consistently that there are two sides to this equation and you consistently ignore it.
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Again, completely unquantifiable.
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As an economist, my good man, you should appreciate that there is a credit as well as a debit side.
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Indeed, one completely unquantifiable at this stage. I note you are having a separate debate all by yourself on “leaving the EU”. That’s done, gone.
What I do know is that poor planning results in poor outcomes in public policy and greater uncertainty destabilises the markets. Indeed, one doesn’t have to look far to see how easily markets can be spooked.
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Frankly, I would be surprised if the EU failed to agree a deal. The political statement accompanying the withdrawal agreement strongly indicates that a no tariff agreement is what they want, and it would be a major upset to the countries of the EU that export to the UK if this is not carried through. If a deal is reached, then where are the calamitous budget implications that will make our sky fall in?
And if a deal isn't reached, it still doesn't mean we won't be trading with the EU. I presume you accept that the EU will lose more by applying tariffs than we will lose. If I calculate that correctly, that gives us a tariff credit!
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Without knowing how much tariffs are, the amounts of goods/services consumed in each direction again this is entirely unquantifiable.
Considering the supply and demand side shocks to the global economy resulting from Coronavirus what trade will look like next year is completely uncertain.
The stock market, and the pound, both reacted positively to Johnson being elected on the promise of delivering a deal that would pass Parliament, ending uncertainty, avoiding a cliff edge and engaging seriously but firmly with the EU on a future trading arrangement.
If a deal is reached all to the good, if not there’s no point walking away at an entirely arbitrary date drawn up in different economic circumstances if there’s a realistic prospect of a deal by the end of 2021. As I said before, it gives businesses time and Government time to prepare policies for fisheries and agricultural sectors.
If there’s any rules we don’t like repeal them on 2nd January 2022 - literally nothing lost as a result.