Damien

They would probably be 'what if' polls that don't get included in poll trackers as they aren't asking the same question and are contingent on different scenarios actually happening, plus they're treated with a greater degree of scepticism because they ask people to imagine how they would feel later rather than what they're feeling now.

The standard poll tracking/general election questions always ask: How you vote if there was a General Election today.

I think the whole 'Tories win in a No Deal scenario' assumes no negative consequences for which the voters blame the Government. If we have a recession, if we have problems around logistics, if people feel less economically secure then that might hurt the Tories. I would imagine the Brexit Party would try to capitalise on it too saying they 'made a mess' of Brexit.