Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
That we don't understand the virus well enough yet?
It is weird how it seems to be going away on its own. Also weird it's not going away in America where they are having a surge of cases.
My best guess is that lockdown drove the virus to such low numbers in Europe that it'll take a sustained period of people breaking social distancing for it gain a foothold again. After all, it doesn't transmit instantly. If I give it you at a protest then you're not also going to give it anyone at that protest, it'll take days before you can spread it, so you're not going to get exponential growth in one day of a mass gathering.
The 'R' number, that amount of people that one person can give it too, might be a lot higher at the protest if only a handful of people are spreading it then maybe that's a few handfuls of people that will catch it. Still small numbers.
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I think the key is in bold. Yes there are people out protesting. However statistically if 1 in 2000 people have (some of those in hospital) it how many at the protest do? An outside activity, some with facemasks, a percentage could already be immune.
Similarly those flocking to the beach. Right now it’s statistically extremely unlikely that you’d get the virus doing any one off activity, whether currently prohibited or not.
The virus hasn’t so much went away on it’s own as the numbers have been driven down by general adherence to the rules. Even those consistently visibly flouting the rules in public spaces are carrying out a low risk activity. The main risk factors are in your own household, on public transport and in workplaces (such as offices). Places where people spend a lot of time in reasonably close contact with the same people.