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Old 26-06-2020, 10:57   #4240
Hugh
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
That we don't understand the virus well enough yet?

It is weird how it seems to be going away on its own. Also weird it's not going away in America where they are having a surge of cases.

My best guess is that lockdown drove the virus to such low numbers in Europe that it'll take a sustained period of people breaking social distancing for it gain a foothold again. After all, it doesn't transmit instantly. If I give it you at a protest then you're not also going to give it anyone at that protest, it'll take days before you can spread it, so you're not going to get exponential growth in one day of a mass gathering.

The 'R' number, that amount of people that one person can give it too, might be a lot higher at the protest if only a handful of people are spreading it then maybe that's a few handfuls of people that will catch it. Still small numbers.
Interesting point in this article from NPR
Quote:
"We have seen almost a near flip in the cases that we're experiencing," Lautenbach says. "So in April of this year, we were really struggling with long-term-care outbreaks. And so about 3 out of 4 people were over the age of 30 and really pretty heavily skewed to 60-plus. And by contrast, in June, we're seeing that now 2 out of 3 people that have contracted this disease are under 29."

That trend is mirrored in Florida, where the median age for COVID-19 patients dropped from 65 years old in March to 37 in late June. Dr. Cheryl Holder, an associate professor at Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine at Florida International University, says that's partly because young people are getting exposed more.

"It's really basically who gets exposed," Holder tells Morning Edition. "If you look who is staying in and following the guidelines, [it's] older people who are at risk. The older folks got [the message]; the young people, not so much."

That's Lautenbach's worry too.

"The concern is that because these younger people are having more mild symptoms, they are going to work sick, they are visiting with their parents and grandparents sick and they're continuing to go to social events where they expose more and more people," Lautenbach says. "So when we think about that web of spread, that web just grows and grows and grows."
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