[1andrew1]

An interesting report which looks at the costs to the EU and UK of Brexit.

More than three-quarters of the impact of Brexit will fall on just five sectors in the EU and the UK, according to new research, and would disproportionately affect specific regions such as London in the UK and Bavaria in Germany.

The hardest hit sectors will be financial services, automotive, agriculture, food and drink, chemicals and plastics, says the study to be published on Monday by consultancy Oliver Wyman and the law firm Clifford Chance....

In Ireland, the agricultural sector’s exposure to UK consumers made it particularly vulnerable, while in Germany, four of the 16 states — Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony — would shoulder more than three-quarters of the impact on the country because of the importance of the automotive and manufacturing sectors in those regions.

https://www.ft.com/content/435d4698-...8-60d3531b7d11

The annual ‘red tape’, or tariff and non-tariff, costs of Brexit for EU27 exporters is around £31 billion and for UK exporters is around £27 billion even after initial steps to mitigate costs have been taken. This is proportionately 4 times larger for the UK as a percentage of Gross Value Added (GVA1).

70% of the aggregate impact falls in just five sectors in both the EU27 and UK.

Disproportional impacts in specific regions such as Bavaria in Germany and London in the UK.

A future customs arrangement equivalent to The Customs Union reduces the EU27 impact to around £14 billion and the UK impact to around £17 billion. Mitigating the costs of Brexit are non-trivial and impacted firms need to be taking steps now. Small firms will be least able to mitigate these costs and in turn pose risks to their supply chain.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...port-Estimates