Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone
There are all sorts of rumours going around and where it ends no one knows.
1/ No Deal on 12 April
2/ A Long Extension which means there will be EU elections
3/ No Brexit
4/ General Election
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1. Possible, somewhat more likely than this morning.
2. Possible, but politically explosive. The elections would become a proxy GE and referendum rolled into one. It’s a pantomime nobody in HMG or the EU wants.
3. Vastly unlikely. The long term consequences would be severe. Try not to forget that Brexit was voted for by a majority of UK voters, and more people than have ever supported a single party or proposition in any vote ever held in the UK. That’s a lot of people to pyzz off.
4. Possible, but not before May steps down. She knows she’s screwed up, badly, and won’t face the electorate over it.
4. would also require 2.
Option 5 is that Parliament re-runs its indicative votes process on Monday, then HMG puts a binary choice before Parliament: choose either the deal or the most popular of the other options.
Almost all the movement has been among Tory hard liners, who might just be finally persuaded to take the deal over either retaining a customs union or holding another referendum. Very few Tories supported either of those options earlier this week. This afternoon’s results show that if May can hold on to all the support the deal has among Labour and independent MPs, she need only win over her own benches. The DUP’s votes would not be needed.