Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
You’re predicting 35000+. Deaths?
I don’t think so.
Infection rates can go up all they want, the death rate is the key metric. I don’t see death rates getting anywhere near the initial wave.
When this whole thing started scientists ( and I posted it in here) said a second wave was unlikely and that it would plateau and would possibly be followed by the odd “ripple“, and I don’t see anything to disagree with that.
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We will see where we are in a month or so. We've got near exponential growth in some areas, test, trace, isolate not identifying the majority of close contacts. We're now fudging the figures against counting Covid-19 deaths - while counting
everyone who has ever tested positive was clearly not the best way to do so we are now in a position where unless you get tested again between initial diagnosis and death at greater than 29 days you aren't counted on the totals. The onset of symptoms, complications and time spent on a ventilator can easily extend life past this arbitrary cut off. The ONS (and excess death rates) will provide a better metric as a result.
We are however better at treatments - which kills off the myth that they'd die anyway once and for all - which could improve mortality. Either way, numbers are going up and the demand side of the economy are staying home.