Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
I think more likely than your scenario is that Johnson will continue unilaterally with the grace period. The EU will retaliate as they've threatened; Johnson might invoke Article 16 but that will only prolong the agony. It is possible that the EU/UK agreements will fall through entirely. leaving the EU with the hard birder problem.
I don't see the GFA collapsing; the only way that would collapse if sectarian violence takes hold and a military border becomes necessary. That will be the EU's fault.
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Let’s follow this logically
As per chris’s post we all know (yes, even us staunch remainers) that the EU is incredibly bureaucratic.
BUT
We accepted the deal that was offered by the EU because if we didn’t a hard border would have been created which would have broken the GFA agreement
If we break the agreement with the EU and a hard border is implemented that breaks the GFA that’s on the U.K. for failing to adhere not the EU
The EU have no legal requirement to move from their position and if they choose not to adjust then this is only resolved in one of two ways
1. The U.K. implements and obides by the treaty it agreed too (which it becomes
clearer by the day they didn’t have the full picture of what they were agreeing to)
2. The EU softens it’s stance (which is possible but unlikely as what message does that send to other non eu countries)
Any sort of border in Ireland highly increases the chances of a trade deal with the US not occurring