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Originally Posted by Sephiroth
I think more likely than your scenario is that Johnson will continue unilaterally with the grace period. The EU will retaliate as they've threatened; Johnson might invoke Article 16 but that will only prolong the agony. It is possible that the EU/UK agreements will fall through entirely. leaving the EU with the hard birder problem.
I don't see the GFA collapsing; the only way that would collapse if sectarian violence takes hold and a military border becomes necessary. That will be the EU's fault.
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Old Boy's scenario is unrealistic. A hard border would breach the Good Friday Agreement so that's not on the cards, as mrmistoffelees has explained.
To help unblock the impasse, it would do no harm for BoJo to replace David Frost with someone with a less confrontational approach.