Thread: The future of television
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Old 16-06-2021, 07:38   #339
OLD BOY
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Re: The future of television
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Cant I point out that for most scheduled linear channels to close by 2035, a number of things would have to happen.

1) The PSB mandate would have to be abolished

2) Appropriate broadband would have to be installed to nearly all the country, including all those out of the way towns, villages, and hamlets

3) 25 million people would have to change their viewing habits drastically

To explain 3) further, let’s look the U.K. demographics - at the moment, most of the move away from linear broadcasting is in the under-35s. In the U.K. today, the average life-span is 81 (averaging out male/female life expectancy), and the age breakdown (rounded figures) is as follows -

0-35 - 29 million

35-64 - 25.5million

64+ - 12 million

For the sake of discussion, let’s say the existing 64+ will have shuffled off this mortal coil in 14 years - that leaves over 25 million who are major users of linear broadcasting.

I find it difficult to see the circumstances where a majority of that group of viewers would give up how they currently view from a combination of linear and streaming to streaming only.
It is possible because:

(1) The PSB arrangements are to be reviewed and they could change the way the rules are applied. We know that to be the case and it has been widely reported.

(2) The broadband rollout continues and all homes will be connected within the next 10 years.

(3) It is not just a question of habits having to change. If Sky's operation becomes IPTV only and the broadcast transmitters are closed down (and I know some on here don't believe it will happen, but I do), then everything will be IPTV. While some of you believe that broadcasting over IPTV will still allow access to scheduled linear TV channels, I would point out the the ITV Hub, All4 and My5 have not done this, and there is no reason to suppose they will in the future.

So if I am correct in those assumptions, the choice to view existing channels will simply not be there.
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