Thread: VOD Netflix/Streaming Services
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Old 05-12-2019, 10:29   #6919
OLD BOY
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Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
It’s your misunderstanding of trends that’s causing the problem and the assumption they must trend to 100%.

I’ve cited an example before where 3/5 years of iPhone sales upwards trend continuing results in 100% market penetration of the iPhone after about 10 years. A ridiculous notion, I’m sure you’d agree.

Consider internet penetration. Still not 100%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...t-penetration/

Mobiles. Not 100%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ion-in-the-uk/

Unfortunately you have confirmation bias so can’t see past the future YOU would like and have been posting about since 2014. Objectivity is so far gone.

I barely watch television, and rarely linear. I don’t have a case I feel passionately about, as you clearly do.

However objectivity tells me that modifying consumer behaviour in the final 20% is much, much harder than capturing the low hanging fruit.
The reason you appear to misunderstand so much is that you manufacture arguments by the other person that have never been made. This is a case in point. Where have I ever said that the viewing of traditional viewing will trend down to 100%? That is indeed a ridiculous notion and you then use that argument to try to discredit me.

What I have said (you can go back and check for yourself) is that the viewing of these traditional channels will continue to fall until they are no longer profitable. The reason why profitability will suffer is that advertising revenues will fall to the extent that the commercial channels will no longer take sufficient revenue from their advertising sales.

I appreciate that you have a different take on this (ie that scheduled channels can operate on a shoestring), but with respect, I do not think that is the case. The existing minor channels that operate on very little revenue are showing material that is as cheap as chips. You can't compare them with the likes of ITV or the other relatively big hitters. I know the broadcasters will be paying for programmes to be shown on the streaming services, but they would have to pay more to show them on scheduled channels as well.

Add to that the fact that broadcasts will no longer make use of the transmitters in the future and Sky is likely to cease its use of satellites to broadcast its channels (in favour of IPTV), and the scene is set for the scenario I have painted. Contrary to your view, I am not passionate about seeing the end of the existing broadcast scheduled channels. I don't watch them live anyway, so why would I care? I am simply reporting what I can see happening and reading various projections and forecasts which lead me to the conclusions I have set out.

You are entitled to hold a different view, of course, as do some others, but you will find that you are adopting a more and more isolated position if you display this rigidity of thought in the years ahead.

NOTE: I have merely responded to your posts here, but can I point out that this subject is better aired on the linear channels thread.
Last edited by OLD BOY; 05-12-2019 at 10:33.
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