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Old 15-10-2020, 22:47   #3470
jfman
Architect of Ideas
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Lacking a little perspective, perhaps. How many polls have shown a majority for the union, over how many years? What was the outcome the only time people were invited to make the choice for real, after months of detailed debate (as opposed to months of separatist politicians exploiting an international emergency as an opportunity for daily jingoistic rabble rousing)?

Given Sturgeon has had months to use a specific set of devolved powers to cast herself as Lady Protector of the nation I’m not especially surprised that we are where we are right now. But the fundamentals haven’t changed, and in fact they’ve got rather worse given the economic cost of the crisis. Unless you’re one of the proper swivel-eyed ones who thinks we really are discussing independence from the imperial power rather than the dissolution of a union, with all the asset and liability sharing that entails?

If there is a fresh referendum campaign in the next 5 years, the economic argument will be painful for the SNP to make, unless they think they can just brass it out like Salmond tried to do in 2014.
The fundamentals of the argument may not have changed in your eyes, and to some extent you probably have a point, however demographics are shifting.

England is politically moving further away from Scotland in it’s own search for a national identity, weakening the union in my view.

I’m not convinced the pre-2014 arguments for the Union will hold as much sway as they did then. I think many will feel let down by what was promised from staying in the UK that hasn’t come to fruition. I’m not convinced people in Scotland will trust a Conservative government to lead the post-Coronavirus recovery in the interests of the whole UK.

I think the unionists need a new compelling case for the union and I don’t know what that is or what it’ll look like.
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