Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
My bad and I grant you that correction, so that means the total effect to UK economy if we left with no trade agreement would be a maximum of 12-15%.
However, WTO rules would kick in and would to some extent reduce that figure as would trade under WTO with the rest of the world until trade agreements were finalised. This (potentially) could mean a boom in the UK economy.
Not so much of the "Doom and Gloom" scenario now is there?
Is there nothing else in my post you disagree with?
|
You're entitled to your opinion. I disagree with it, in large part because most of the evidence is to the contrary of it and I've no idea where you get the idea that WTO rules would balance out loss of trade with the EU, but don't see any point in getting hung up recycling old debates.
---------- Post added at 15:07 ---------- Previous post was at 15:03 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
I read that the EU membership fee we pay each year, is equivalent to 7% in a trade tariff fee with the EU, outside customs union.
Once we leave and are outside the customs union, we would expect to be charged and pay around 2.5% in trade tariff revenues. The article said, the membership of the EU, along with it's hefty fee compared paying just 2.5% in revenues, is the biggest case of mis-selling that dwarfs the banking PPI scandal. If I can find the article I will link to it.
|
As the guy in the video I linked noted tariffs are nothing in the grand scheme. Non-tariff barriers are far more of an issue.
If it were as black and white as that it would make no sense for the various forecasts to be predicting the worst outcome for the UK being reverting to WTO. Pretty much the only group making economic forecasts that believe WTO is the best option for the UK is hyper-partisan. Everyone else from dedicated internationalists to those entirely indifferent consider things the opposite way.
There's a really good reason why Leave.EU and Vote Leave didn't campaign on the economy.