[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Chris

The Russian campaign has been utterly boneheaded from the outset. Not only did they not realise they would have to actually properly invade and fight to take the country, once they did so they continually underestimated their opposition. Worse, they have treated the people under their control with such utter brutality that no Ukrainian leader could agree to terms as long as any prospect remains of liberating Ukrainian citizens from it. Ukraine has every incentive to fight and none whatsoever to negotiate. Plus their idiot propagandists on state TV are now cheerfully spelling out how Ukraine needs to be bombed into the freezer and then a peace negotiated that lasts long enough for Russia to re-arm and start again.

I don't think that Chris' accurate analysis, leads me to conclude that Ukraine will win against Russia. The proposition that Russia won't win is predicated on two factors: (1) They are running out of missiles (but are they?); (2) Resistance by the population will stiffen such that Russia won't win (is that right?).

I suppose one can argue the toss over what constitutes a "win" for Russia or a "lose" for Ukraine. But Ukraine without electricity in November, if that happens, is not going to win. Electricity won't be restored quickly and people will do what they need to to survive - as in migrate, leaving Ukraine more-or-less empty into which Russia could walk.