Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking
So Mick didn't post this in post#15?
If catching from someone is difficult, just think what the number of current cases would be, if it wasn't difficult to catch. If eg only 1 in 100 people pass it on(I don't know the real figure, perhaps nobody does), and 90 cases are in the UK, then that would suggest around 9,000 cases already out there. If instead, the 90 all knew each other, it should take a large number of "interactions" for that number of people to become infected from one another.
Perhaps there is a previously unidentified method of transmission that isn't very difficult.
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As per, you get the wrong end of the stick and proceed to beat yourself soundly with it.
Nuance is always important, but sadly it’s what you most often seem to miss. A couple of things I’ve noted as I’ve read through this thread:
1. 85% effectiveness is extremely good for any vaccine. You have no room to argue here, least of all on the basis that the number just doesn’t look good enough to you. I would have hoped we would all have learned at least this much over the past 2 years.
2. Again, with regards to nuance: Mick and Pierre are not contradicting one another, they are expressing different aspects of the problem. Monkey pox does not readily transmit from human to human and when a case is identified, good diagnostic practice would be to check for contact with infected animals first. Where it does transmit from human to human, close contact is required, and even then it doesn’t transmit easily.
3. This leads to the shibboleth surrounding this issue. Given the stigma around AIDS in the 1980s I can understand why our public health officials have been reluctant to say this aloud, but for monkeypox to transmit most readily from human to human it requires intimate contact. For it to transmit readily through a significant number of people, that is likely to be promiscuous sexual contact. Gay raves in Europe is an entirely plausible theory, though again I understand why officials are unlikely ever to say this aloud and will instead focus on highly targeted messaging to bring the outbreak under control.