[jfman]

Originally Posted by Stuart

This is where the ideal pushed by Johnson, Rees-Mogg et al falls short of reality. They think we can gain the upper hand by refusing to pay the 39bn. I don't think we can. The EU are asking that we pay our dues, but I don't think they'll be massively inconvenienced if we don't. Yes, it might cause some ripples in the money market, but they'll weather it. On the other hand, we will be going into negotiations for almost every aspect of our international trade with a reputation of being an unreliable payer. This is likely to be reflected in tougher trading terms, or countries being unwilling to deal with us. The WTO may not be able to help, as we won't be members, and any request for membership requires the agreement of all members, in much the same way the EU requires agreement amongst its members for actions. We may not get that agreement if other countries think we are just going to run off without paying any debts.

At the same time some of these other countries are trying to get trade deals with... the European Union.