With the best will in the world Pierre you're making the same false assumptions as the herd immunity crowd last March.
Transmission in schools remains low while community prevalence is low. It's inevitable that infection, given time without mitigation, will spread and infect significant proportions of the school age population and into the wider population - among those unvaccinated and where vaccine efficacy has waned.
It's then an absolute inevitability that at a later date we will be spending more time, money and effort in lockdowns against an escape variant.
I agree being vaccinated should be a matter of choice. However if too many people choose not to the herd immunity threshold is never hit and we spend years firefighting.
If we say it's not safe to vaccinate teenagers and those younger why would someone in their early 20s volunteer to take it? Suddenly HIT requires almost 100% uptake of a 90% vaccine - something we've not seen against new variants.
If we get 70% uptake of a 70% vaccine then mutant variants are an absolute inevitability.
Vaccinate the vulnerable is 2021s 'shield the vulnerable'. While it's rational to want HIT to be achieved by other people taking the vaccine - personal risk becomes zero - the problem is where everyone chooses to be rational at an individual level.
---------- Post added at 09:27 ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx
Back on the blood clotting risk thing, I found this paper from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University which is a very good discussion of the risks and benefits for the AZ vaccine in different age groups depending on the prevalence of COVID infections in the population.
The top figure is the standout one. At current infection rates, the risk of blood clots of the type seen in vaccinated patients in the 20-29 year age range is higher than the risk of ICU admission due to COVID.
If infection rates rise, then the risk/benefit swings towards vaccination but of course we want to go towards lower rates... |
So a rational individual doesn't take the vaccine but hopes everyone else does. Especially whatever politician was leaning on Channel 4 to suppress the story because it could slow easing of restrictions by a mere two weeks.