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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
I disagree. All the forecasts on what would follow from the Brexit vote to date have been wrong and I have no reason to believe that the current forecasts are correct either. Forecasts about the economy have left a lot to be desired as well.
I do not rationalise things the way you suggest, not by a long chalk. My view is a considered one and I will change it if circumstances start to indicate that I may have misjudged something.
I simply cannot agree that the EU is the be all and end all of everything that some make it out to be. Trade with the EU will not be markedly different after Brexit, and we will have new trade to add to it. Plus we will no longer be forking out vast sums of money for membership of the EU.
Of course, if the Government make a balls up of the negotiations I would have to reassess, but there is no sign of that happening at present, although those with their heads in the mud cannot see any way those negotiations will ever give us what we want. They will be surprised, I believe.
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Jon has shown you how accurate the forecasts have actually been so I won’t duplicate his good efforts here in pointing out your confirmation bias.
How much does the economy need to suffer by for you to change your mind? Or is anything acceptable if it means we get to leave the EU. Do we actually have to suffer the loss first or will you accept the British Government’s analysis?
No one on here has said the EU is the be all and end all. People like me have said it’s imperfect but it’s the largest market in the world, it’s on our doorstep and it provides access to the largest number of free trade agreements across the globe. We’ve also pointed out that non-tariff barriers are more important than tariff barriers when it comes to trade with the EU and that services are a key export which are unlikely to be covered by a free trade deal. Both of these factors would penalise the UK even in the case of a free trade deal.
The EU negotiations haven’t been going staggeringly well by any account including the Government's. Indeed, the Foreign Secretary recently called for them to be outsourced to Donald Trump!