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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Yes, well I guess we will always be able to rely on you for your doom and gloom attitude. Netflix will still be going quite nicely by 2035, which is more than we can say for our conventional scheduled channels.
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That’s entirely speculative given their debt. You are at the front of the queue to tell us how there will be a plethora of streamers, or for ease I’ll call them “Netflix alternatives” ready to join the market.
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I mean, reckless ? Really? Reckless is sitting on your laurels and watching your content being steadily taken away. The Netflix Originals are designed to replace that content. Yes, it's costly, but once they judge that their library is sufficiently attractive to ensure its position as market leader is secured, it will be able to reduce its spending on originals and start reducing its level of debt from subscriptions. This is a long-term project.
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Only if the consumer judges the content to be sufficiently attractive will they be the market leader. Can they do that and service their debt against all this competition? A massive question mark that many hold.
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No doubt, had you been giving advice in Sky's early days, you would have been speculating heavily on their demise as well.
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I’m going to straight bat your straw man here and not play the ball.
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You severely underestimate the determination and imagination of business to succeed. Netflix is going nowhere (but up) in my lifetime and is almost without doubt here for the long term.
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Here we go folks. Business can succeed on imagination alone. Forget everything you know about competition, costs, revenues, profits, just imagine success and it’ll happen!
I’ll categorically say Netflix as it stands now won’t exist in 2035 without being acquired by a major content provider or merging with one. Everyone expects the market to consolidate and Netflix has nothing unique except for its debt.