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So which country is more likely to resort to nuclear weapons - the one that can fight a conventional war or the one that can't?
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1) A country with nuclear weapons
2) A country with a first use doctrine for the use of tactical nuclear weapons
Both conditions are satisfied by the USA*. Neither are satisfied by Iran. Iran is at far higher risk of being on the end of a nuclear strike than either Israel or the USA. In that situation, wouldn't you want to even things up by having a few nukes of your own?
This isn't an argument for proliferation, incidentally, it's an argument for disarmament and diplomacy. The current crop of Dr. Strangelove clones in the Pentagon is not a recipe for anyone's security and you're a fool if you think otherwise.
* Didn't you know that one of Rumsfeld's changes to US doctrine is that tac nukes can be used first? The new US Ambassador to the UN is keen on it, too.