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Originally Posted by TheBlueRaja
i say they are talking buttkiss because after the host opens the door and shows that there is a goat behind it there is a 50/50 chance of the player winning at this point - so therefore switching wont increase the odds of winning.
Right?  |
Wrong.
See the example lower down the page of increasing the number of doors.
If there are 100 doors your chance of picking the right one are 1:100. If the host opens one door and it's not the right one your chances have "improved" (only slightly! But improved none the less) to 1:99
If he opens *all* the other doors bar one however (which is the equivalent of what actually happens) then the odds change from 1:100 for the first door to 99:100 for the other one!
You *may* have got lucky on that first 1:100 shot, but it's much more likely that switching will give the prize.