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**Chris** · 03-05-2005, 12:26

I sure wish this was a public poll ... I'd dearly love to know who is of the honest opinion that the Tories are going to win! They have a mountain to climb, bigger than it even appears to be thanks to boundary changes, and the fact that we are now a true three-party democracy, unlike the last time a Tory opposition won power in 1979. The swing the Tories need is beyond them, barring a miracle.

The only thing that could upset the apple cart is the 'invisible' campaign the commentators have only really started talking about this weekend, in the key marginals. It appears that the real election battle has been going on in only a very few location this time, so it's perhaps unsurprising that national polling appears to show so little movement.

I think the result on Thursday is going to be feindishly difficult to call with any accuracy. At the end of the day the British electorate is a very sophisticated one and I predict tactical voting on a grander scale than we have ever seen this week. FWIW, I expect to see a Labour administration with a much reduced majority. Whether it is reduced to the point the Tories suffered in 1992, with all the attendant problems that would mean, I don't know.

As a parting shot, I note that the perception of likely outcome we ourselves are expressing in this thread - overwhelmingly of the belief that Labour will win - is exactly the message Labour fears, and that the Tories secretly want. With a big swing out of the question, the Tories best hope lies in the apathy of traditional Labourites who think they don't have to vote because the result is a foregone conclusion.

03-05-2005, 12:26	#8
Chris Trollsplatter Cable Forum Team Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: North of Watford Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests Posts: 38,596	Re: Who do you think will win the election? I sure wish this was a public poll ... I'd dearly love to know who is of the honest opinion that the Tories are going to win! They have a mountain to climb, bigger than it even appears to be thanks to boundary changes, and the fact that we are now a true three-party democracy, unlike the last time a Tory opposition won power in 1979. The swing the Tories need is beyond them, barring a miracle. The only thing that could upset the apple cart is the 'invisible' campaign the commentators have only really started talking about this weekend, in the key marginals. It appears that the real election battle has been going on in only a very few location this time, so it's perhaps unsurprising that national polling appears to show so little movement. I think the result on Thursday is going to be feindishly difficult to call with any accuracy. At the end of the day the British electorate is a very sophisticated one and I predict tactical voting on a grander scale than we have ever seen this week. FWIW, I expect to see a Labour administration with a much reduced majority. Whether it is reduced to the point the Tories suffered in 1992, with all the attendant problems that would mean, I don't know. As a parting shot, I note that the perception of likely outcome we ourselves are expressing in this thread - overwhelmingly of the belief that Labour will win - is exactly the message Labour fears, and that the Tories secretly want. With a big swing out of the question, the Tories best hope lies in the apathy of traditional Labourites who think they don't have to vote because the result is a foregone conclusion.