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Originally Posted by Damien
Thats a lot of presumptions  7% away from labour in marignals on top of the 5% already done on the yougov poll. Thats 13% swing away from labour in those seats. Labour may be unpopular at the moment but its no where near that type of swing |
Well, these things are always, as Peter Snow says, a bit of fun. But don't forget we're talking about marginals only - these are localised adjustments. The big problem with national opinion polls is that they don't allow for the fact that different constituencies have different loyalties and a greater or lesser number of swing voters.
Remember at the 1992 election, for example (not that you would, sorry) the opinion polls got it massively wrong, and a predicted Labour victory - based on a swing of up to 10% indicated by the polls - actually turned out to be a Conservative majority of, IIRC, about 7, after the swing turned out to be less than 5%.