Originally Posted by Chris T

The polls indeed show the Tories are not getting the breakthrough they will need. Interestingly the Tory score in the various polls tracked by the BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2...ml/default.stm

.... is pretty much consistent with our own polling here. Labour, however, is doing far worse in our polls. To an extent this depends of course on how the question is framed and what options are available, we have 'Not voting' and 'undecided' in our poll.

Our own results so far are most like those from YouGov, which I guess makes sense because YouGov is an internet-based poll. A few days ago we were discussing the merits of internet polling due to its potentially skewed sample, but on Today this morning someone was saying that a large-scale internet poll is actually more likely to be accurate than the traditional polls conducted by the likes of MORI and ICM. Certainly when you examine the stats on that BBC site you find the YouGov sample size is twice that of any of the others, while margin of error is just 2% compared to 3% for all the others.

If that's the case, the race is a little closer than Labour would like to think.