mojo

I think the real danger for NTL here is that they will become the next AOL.

AOL marketed themselves as good for newbies, with easy set-up, friendly software, parental controls etc. Also, AOL was everywhere, CDs in every shop and on every magazine, even on the default Windows desktop. At first, a lot of people signed up and loved it, but after a while those people started to get a bit more savvy and wanting to break away from the enforced AOL browser etc. Their techie friends didn't think much of AOL either, and never recommended it. So, they moved to a different provider.

AOL tried to counter, with less lock-in etc. NTL is in danger is going the same way. NTL is the default choice for anyone who already had NTL TV and phone packages. However, more and more people are getting into downloading media, be is via the Apple movie trailers site, Bittorrent, web radio etc. The BBCs new P2P app for distributing TV shows free of charge is likely to be massive in the comming year too. When people realise they can't use all this stuff on NTL, and their friends tell them how much better unlimited ADSL is, they will switch. Not only will they ditch their cable modem, but also their cable TV and phone. NTL won't just loose £25 a month, more like £55/month for someone with digital telly.

Even AOL are now doing unlimited (no cap) broadband, and BT/Sky would just love your business. There is even Freeview on the TV front. Keep in mind that NTL is already falling behind with both the TV (Sky has more channels available, better (working) interactive, HDTV in 2006) and phone (caller ID doesn't seem to be available in ex-C&W areas like mine). Don't think that ADSL ISPs won't match the speed/price of NTL either.

Personally, I like NTL as a provider, but if the cap is enforced I'd be forced to move. I know at least three people who I wouldn't consider particularly tech savvy who moved to NTL cable internet when they saw how much better is was than ADSL, but I have no doubt they would move back again. As the credit card companies offering 0% on balance transfers have found, people are getting more canny and will move when they have to.