[jfman]

I think it’s hard to tell.

The “mid-term” (urgh, an imported Americanism we can live without) council elections were never representative despite how many times someone pulled up a graphic saying “if this was a general election”.

Similarly it’s easy in a by-election to vote one way to stop Reform. In Scotland there’s some resentment on the unionist side that Reform splitting the vote let the SNP in the back door.