[1andrew1]

Reform seems to have hit a brick wall. It's done well in local government elections but has failed to win the last three by-elections. It still remains dependent on Farage's personality which is a risk particularly given the investigation into his undisclosed £5m gift.

Farage's own popularity has decreased (65% have an unfavourable opinion of him v 59% a year ago) and the Party's appeal to women has inevitably suffered after poor vetting of its Makerfield candidate let in someone who had previously proclaimed himself a sexist.