Cable Forum - View Single Post

**Hugh** · Yesterday, 18:21

Quote:

Clearing Strait of Hormuz of mines could take 6 months, Pentagon tells Congress

The Pentagon assessment, shared in a classified briefing for lawmakers, suggests gasoline and oil prices could remain elevated through the midterm elections.

It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military, and any such operation is unlikely to be carried out until the U.S. war with Iran ends, the Pentagon has informed Congress — an assessment that means the conflict’s economic impact could extend late into this year or beyond.

A senior Defense Department official shared the estimate, which has not been previously reported, during a classified briefing Tuesday for members of the House Armed Services Committee, said three officials familiar with the discussion. The timeline — met with frustration by Democrats and Republicans alike, two of these people said — is perhaps the clearest sign that gasoline and oil prices could remain elevated long after any peace deal is reached…

… Richard Nephew, an expert on Iranian diplomacy and senior researcher at Columbia University, said the six-month time frame to clear the strait of mines is likely to jolt oil and gas markets given the concern insurers, shipowners and captains will have about moving through a mined sea lane.

“You’re not going to have many people wanting to run that risk,” he said. The presence of mines might not cause a “total interruption,” Nephew said, but the consequences of a two-track strait being partially unusable could be significant.