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Re: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War
https://archive.ph/Zz5RR
Quote:
As US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran this weekend, bettors on Polymarket — where $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes — were cashing in. Almost immediately, blockchain sleuths began hunting for unusual patterns in recent bets.
Six accounts on Polymarket made around $1 million in profit by betting on the US to strike Iran by Feb. 28, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. The accounts were all freshly created in February and had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur. Some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
These are the hallmarks that blockchain analysts associate with insider trading in prediction markets, an industry without widespread oversight and no agreed-upon methodology for distinguishing luck from leaks — and they’re far from conclusive on their own. Similar patterns suggested that an insider made a big profit betting on the ouster of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro in January, and have also been used to identify several other cases of alleged insider trading.
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