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**Hugh** · Today, 12:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K

6 PMs since the Brexit vote, in 9 years. The country has been in a downward chaotic spiral since.

Maybe it isn't the politicians ( of any parties ) fault. All of them has failed to polish a t***d, as its impossible.

https://archive.ph/2025.11.26-150646...rope-p3mhqd66f

Quote:

We Brexiteers must acknowledge the costs of leaving Europe

All human beings are prone to what is known as “motivated reasoning”. We interpret new information through the lens of our existing biases, always looking to justify the conclusions we already hold. This is especially true when it comes to contentious political choices. We don’t like to admit that a policy or government that we have endorsed has had harmful consequences.

Yet the pursuit of truth demands we try to overcome such cognitive biases. I was part of the small band of Economists for Brexit. We argued, in good faith, that disentangling ourselves from the EU would unlock long-term economic potential via more policy freedom. Nine years on, we cannot pretend things have gone well so far.

A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Nicholas Bloom and co-authors reviews both macroeconomic and microeconomic data. It suggests that UK GDP per person is 6 to 8 per cent lower today than if we had remained. Business investment is down 15 per cent; employment and productivity by 3 to 4 per cent each. Those magnitudes are no minor frictional cost of new trade arrangements. They signify a strong headwind to Britain’s growth this past decade…

… The microeconomic, firm-level data is crystal clear that Brexit has had a significant, depressive impact. The authors use the Bank of England’s decision-maker panel — about 7,000 firms surveyed — to show that the more EU-exposed a company was, the more likely it cut investment and slowed hiring after the referendum. By 2023, average business investment was 12 per cent lower than otherwise. Productivity within firms was 3 to 4 per cent weaker.

Roughly half of firms listed Brexit as a top source of uncertainty for years after the vote. Yes, remainer foot-dragging in parliament exacerbated this uncertainty. But wherever you ascribe blame, managers devoted hours each week to planning for new post-Brexit customs arrangements, regulation and precautionary stockpiles. This displacement activity weakened innovation, delayed investment and distracted managers from core business.

Such evidence cannot be dismissed as Project Fear. It is data. Brexit was a constitutional choice about where laws and regulations were made. My judgment was that Britain’s messy parliamentary democracy would be more effective in error-correcting than Brussels’ bureaucracy, in the long run. But thus far, we have endured Brexit’s downsides, through new trade frictions and protracted uncertainty, with any upsides paling in comparison.

Brexit did not cause Britain’s growth malaise, but it undoubtedly deepened it.
Nor did it create our fiscal woes, although it worsened them too. Denial about this helps no one. Indeed, a successful sovereign economic policy demands taking responsibility and facing the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.