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Originally Posted by Chris
I think the vote split explanation is a bit convenient. Internal party disunity is hardly a new thing. It happens here, usually within Labour, often enough. The official candidate typically still wins, if the seat is safe enough. Sure, Cuomo will have taken something off Mamdani, but how much? It has to be more than 17% just to account for what Mamdani has lost compared to Di Blasio.
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Internal party disunity isn't a new thing, but a New York Election that isn't a simple Democrat vs Republican vote is. This was a Democrat vs a Former Democrat running as an Independent vs a Republican.
According to the exit poll 31% of people who said they were Democrats voted for Cuomo. Cuomo did better with wealthier and older voters. He won the over-45+ vote. Most Republicans also voted for Cuomo to try and keep Mamdani out.
Mamdani won because he turned out women and younger voters. He did enough that he managed to offset losing part of the Democrat base who stuck with Cuomo.
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If the Dems can’t make it here, they can’t make it anywhere, and they were within a rat’s whisker of not making it. Of course they’re going to do well in the mid terms but I don’t think these results are nearly as good as they should be considering how polarising Trump is, or is supposed to be.
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New York isn't, but the reason the vote for the Democratic candidate fell wasn't because the Republican vote held up.
It's the other votes, such as that in Virginia, that will be encouraging for the Democrats.
In the end, it's similar to Labour here. Trump was elected because people were unhappy with the economy, it hasn't got better (maybe worse), and if he doesn't turn it aroun,d voters will be angry.