Yesterday, 21:44
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#3484
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Trollsplatter
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 38,110
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Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
A useful take on recent events from Timothy Garton Ash, professor of European Studies at Oxford:
https://timothygartonash.substack.co...rumps-disgrace
Quote:
The outcome of this war won't be determined by any peace talks any time soon. (The White House claimed Putin had agreed to meet with Zelensky next; but Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says he won't. Another slap in the face for Trump.)
No, the outcome of this war will be determined by the course of this war - and by the defence and deterrence arrangements in place when it finally reaches a ceasefire. 'Security guarantees' are not a matter of words on paper. (Ukrainians remember the fine words of the security assurances given by the US, UK and Russia in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which turned out to be not worth the paper they were written on.) In real life, security guarantees are a matter of steel, firepower, electronics, physical presence and mutual trust.
If Ukraine can keep holding the line, with only small losses of territory despite its acute shortage of young men ready to fight, and Europe (together with countries like Canada, and some vital strategic enablers from the US) can sustain its military, defence-industrial and economic support for Ukraine while planning for longer-term deterrence – particularly in the skies – the pressure can eventually become greater on Russia than it is on Ukraine. That’s more likely to happen next year than this. Only then, if Putin finds he is getting nowhere militarily while the returning bodybags and a faltering economy begin to threaten the stability of his regime, might he be ready to start talking seriously.
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