Ok, I think we can agree that the outcome of any cessation of war will not be Ukraine restored to pre-2014 borders.
Neither would Putin be content with just holding onto the Crimea, as he’s already had it for over a decade and he won’t give up Sevastopol.
So what’s on the table are the gains made by Russia since the war started. Which is about 1/5th of Ukraine (not sure if that includes Crimea or not).
It may be simplistic but what else would the negotiation look like?
- Russia retreats, keeps Crimea and gets a minerals deal with Ukraine? I don’t see that squaring with Putin’s dream of restoring Greater Russia.
- Or perhaps Ukraine fights on to victory, as the picture you seem to be painting has them in the ascendancy.
---------- Post added at 18:27 ---------- Previous post was at 18:24 ----------
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Originally Posted by pip08456
Pierre, you obviously don't know otr understand the Ukrainian people, they will never surrender, never give terrortory to anyone. Either Russia is defeated (and they can do it) or they cease to exist. They are now developing and producing their own weapons to do it.
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Your point falls in 2014. The Crimea has been under Russian control for over a decade and was taken with barely a whimper.
---------- Post added at 18:37 ---------- Previous post was at 18:27 ----------
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territory changing hands by conquest is anathema in Europe, what with that unfortunate business we concluded in 1945
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Indeed, but borders changing in Europe after wars and after the fall of the USSR, is not to be unexpected.
I may have mentioned on this thread before, but I had a conversation in Feb with an ex- Colonel and said this ends with Russia keeping some of the gains, a new border with a demilitarised Zone manned on the Ukraine side by European and or NATO Troops.