Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
While it’s true Ukraine’s territorial extent is specified in its constitution, I don’t mention it because it’s a red herring. A constitution can be changed. Yes, it would be fiendishly difficult in Ukraine’s case but the process is set out and can be made to work if there’s the will to do so. Russia itself is going to have to change its constitution at some point, because it changed it a couple of years ago in order to lay claim to swathes of south and east Ukraine, including land it has still failed to occupy and land which Ukraine recaptured in 2022 and 2023 that isn’t even up for debate at the pretend negotiations proposed at Alaska. You are absolutely right, though, there would have to be a ceasefire in order to conduct a referendum, which would require international involvement. And no ceasefire is on offer. A further indicator that the Alaska proposals are un-serious.
The major sticking point, aside from everything we’ve mentioned over the past 24 hours, is that territory changing hands by conquest is anathema in Europe, what with that unfortunate business we concluded in 1945. Europe is absolutely nowhere near backing a peace plan that rewards Putin for his aggression and incentivises him to come back for more later (which he always has done, and always will do). And while it may seem Europe is sidelined by Trump at the moment, the more erratic Trump is and the more explicitly he withdraws support and parrots Kremlin talking points, the clearer it becomes in European capitals that the days of US-backed security are gone. Defence spending and production is ramping up in Europe. It’s still too slow and it has come awfully late, but it’s happening.
We were treated last week to news footage of Admiral Tony Radakin, our chief of defence staff, heading to Washington to try to thrash out what post-Ukraine security architecture would look like and how the US or European armies would be deployed. Nobody need think that mission was conceived with any other intention but to demonstrate to the Trump White House what an insane idea it is and to bog it down in the detail. Notice how Trump shortly afterwards did his customary can-kicking (“I’ll decide in a couple of weeks”) and since then, it has all gone awfully quiet.
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