Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
OK it was poorly put.
My point was
The number of shadow fleet vessels transporting Russian oil has risen from 20% in 2022 to 80% in 2025.
The graph I posted, clearly shows that.
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So they’re working harder to smuggle their oil out. Fine, but besides the point.
What gets out, is sold at a discount. Less gets out overall. And Russia’s ability to process what it drills is being degraded on a near daily basis by Ukraine’s strategic strike campaign which is getting gradually more intense by the week, and which will really kick off when its domestically produced Flamingo cruise missile output gets from 1 unit per week to 1 per day, which it is slated to do before year end. Trump’s ban on ATACMS strikes inside Russia, and his effective veto on similar Scalp/Storm Shadow use (via denial of US supplied targeting data)* will have less and less influence on Ukraine as time passes.
The war will end at the negotiating table because wars almost invariably do. However, to imagine the only issue of substance at that table will be Putin holding a lot of land is a very 2 dimensional view of the situation.
*This is strategically bonkers from the US’s point of view as well - next-generation French and UK missiles will for certain no longer rely on American tech or data, and they are already losing orders for very expensive things like F-35s from nations that worry they may be told what they can and can’t do with them in the future.