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Re: Reform UK's chronicles
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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
We could, actually. You are being negative again.The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement does not explicitly require ECHR membership, although technically the parts of it relating to law enforcement and security 'may be suspended' (Article 524). However, trade would not be impacted as you have strongly implied here.
Other trade agreements would not be affected at all by our withdrawing from the ECHR.
The economic impact of our leaving the EU has not been the disaster that remainers had predicted, and the EU is desperate to try to prove otherwise, given that some countries are considering leaving the EU. Poland, for example, is facing daily fines for continuing to prevent uncontrolled immigration into the country. If the EU can persuade those countries that the disadvatages of doing so outweigh the advantages, it will make them think twice.
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Since you specifically focus on the economic impact, you may find information from February this year informative…
https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/th...s/#assumptions
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The post-Brexit trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU
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Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU
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New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact, and any effect will be gradual (see our 2018 Discussion paper for more detail). This is because the deals concluded to date either replicate (or ‘roll over’) deals that the UK already benefited from as an EU member state, or do not have a material impact on our forecast.
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Or in a summary chart
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/...rrer=deep-link
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