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Originally Posted by Sephiroth
First, recognition to Hugh for taking the trouble to post the two analyses of Reform UK’s loose fiscal plans. Reform’s plans, at first sight, put Reform UK into the same wishful thinking pot as the other main parties.
Reform UK can come right if they soberly and soundly explain the downward spiral we are in and how they will realistically deal with that. Being a downward spiral, realism will require some serious analysis - what’s going downhill, ranked by importance to people and the economy. Then one by one, a choice of cures for each challenge that eventually inter-lock to provide the best mix of measures.
Such a plan would also require investment plans. We can’t borrow any more for growth - we’ve proved that we can’t manage large projects. So that would fall to private industry and they’ll want to make their buck. The countries with the tin to invest need to (a) like us, (b) see a buck or five as the result of their investment, (c) see a government plan to make that possible.
All this boils down to a fragile set of geo-political variables where chances of success are low. So this implies the need for “foundations” and/or “building blocks”; the stuff that Labour mumbles on about whilst monumentally failing. When you add Starmer to the Tories’ mess, you’ve got compound mess.
I doubt that Reform UK nor anyone can fix this without a huge, painful reset. For example, it is urgent that the retirement age be raised significantly to take pressure off the upcoming Treasury’s bankruptcy; at the same time, a pension investment fund must be established to grow for future pensions. The incoming shortfall will have to be paid for by taxation - must happen. This needs selling to the public. Stupid projects and most foreign aid should be stopped.
The green shit must be stopped. Just think = heat pumps have to run on electricity. Plus they cost the earth to buy and install. We’ve got natural gas resources; use them. Common sense stuff.
Reform really must have sound plans, explained to the public. No good trying to woo the public; the public need to be aware of the sit creek we’re up and be convinced that the Reform ship has the paddle.
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Sadly these are not sound plans from Reform UK. The miscalculations are shocking and Reform needs to go back to the drawing board and some. Putin will like them as they plan to do a Chamberlain and stop supporting Ukraine. Or end stupid foreign aid as Reform prefers to call it.
I'm not sure anyone surgically explaining the problems we're in is going to win an election in the UK right now. This kind of analysis and trade-offs won't ever come from populists like Farage and Trump. It is exactly what the Conservatives should be doing now behind closed doors in readiness for the 2029 election but primarily the 2036 one.
The gas arguments don't work as gas is sold on a global market not a UK one and is more expensive than renewables. We need energy sovereignty and to future-proof our energy supplies whilst minimising the growth of global warming as this is costly in terms of new flood defences, poor crop yields, etc. Common sense stuff.
