Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
i wonder how close Iran is in reality from having a nuclear bomb
|
Quote:
I essentially see two paths ahead:
1. Israel completes its objective by dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and conducts follow-on strikes as needed to prevent reconstruction.
2. Iran rushes the bomb
As of May 2025, Iran had a declared stockpile of 408.6 kg of 60% enriched uranium.
Keep in mind that enriching uranium from natural levels to 60% accounts for roughly 90% of the total energy required to reach weapons-grade.
So if anything substantial survives, or if infrastructure can be relocated, Iran could reach weapons-grade enrichment levels relatively quickly.
|
https://x.com/frhoffmann1/status/193...56-Kgau3lzowJw
That’s Dr Fabian Hoffman, defence, missile and nuclear strategy specialist at Oslo University.
Take from it what you will but I have seen plenty of people with the expertise to know what they’re on about, saying similar things.
The timing of Israel’s attack adds some credence to it all. Iran has motive and intent and seems to have been close to securing the means. Hoffman’s analysis would also be predictive of Israel not letting up quite yet.